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Monday, March 31, 2008 |
Volume 2, Issue #9 |
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 Published weekly, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. T
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Today's Top Stock Picks |
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 Jump Aboard what Could be the Most Successful New Stock in Years
Visa's (V) main competitor is up +380% since 2006, but as the dominate credit card company, V stands to perform even better.
Read More. . .
A Safe 6.1% Yield with One of the Nation's Largest REITs
Despite an overall economic slowdown, Weingarten (WRI) has signed more than 1,200 new leases or renewals over the past year at an average rental increase of +14%.
Read More. . .
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Market Outlook
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Right after a week where the major averages turned in one of their best performances in more than five years, all registering gains of +3.5% or better after the Fed's latest rate cut, uncertainty has quickly returned to the market.
For a time, the Fed's bold actions and the resulting euphoria on Wall Street had some asking if maybe, just maybe, we had put in a bottom. And that optimism spilled over into this past week, as the Dow shot up nearly 200 points on Monday, bolstered by JP Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) sweetened offer for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) and a surprisingly upbeat report from the most unlikely of places — the housing sector. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes actually
rose about +3% in February.
However, that report was later trumped by yet another decline in median home prices, one of the steepest on record. Worse still, a key gauge of consumer confidence tumbled to a fresh five-year low, and a lesser-reported forward-looking component of the index tumbled to 47.9 — a level last seen in December 1973, the heart of one of the worst bear markets in history.
And as if to confirm those weak readings, the Commerce Department announced on Thursday that GDP growth slowed to an anemic +0.6% during the fourth quarter of 2007. That's not just a deceleration from the +4.9% pace from the prior quarter; slamming on the brakes would be a more apt description.
To close out the week, department store retailer J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) spooked investors with a grim business assessment, leaving the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by about -1% each and the Nasdaq just barely positive.
Heading into this week, the S&P is on pace to close out the quarter with a decline of around -10% — painful, but nowhere near historic. In fact, it would take a sell-off of nearly twice that percentage (-18.8%) just to make the top ten. Nevertheless, for the time being at least, the pendulum has shifted back toward the bears.
However, regardless of a mild downturn in consumer spending, plastic remains the legal tender of choice for millions. And credit card transaction volumes continue to climb — good news for companies like MasterCard (NYSE: MA), whose shares have soared +380% since their IPO in 2006. Below,
Market Advisor newsletter editor Paul Tracy argues why Visa (NYSE: V, $62.76), fresh off its own IPO earlier this month, just might follow a similar path.
Also in today's TopStockAnalysts Digest, I list a few reasons why investors might want to go shopping for Weingarten Realty (NYSE: WRI, $34.32). With a coast-to-coast portfolio of shopping centers representing more than 5,700 tenants, the company rakes in a steady stream of rental income and has boosted its distributions to shareholders for a remarkable streak of 23 consecutive years — the most recent of which puts the yield on these sharply undervalued shares at 6.1%.
Good Investing!
— Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest
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Jump Aboard what Could be the Most Successful New Stock in Years
by Paul Tracy, Editor — Market Advisor |
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Visa (NYSE: V, $62.76), like its main rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA), is not a bank and it does not make loans, assume credit risk or set interest rates on credit cards — the actual loan is made by the bank or consumer credit firm that issues the card. Rather, Visa simply handles the processing of card payments made with Visa branded cards. Visa derives revenues in two main ways ways: fees charged to merchants every time a payment is processed, and the licensing fees it charges banks for the use of its "Visa" brand.
Visa's main competitive advantage is its size and the widespread acceptance of its cards. Specifically, Visa cards are accepted by more merchants than any other brand, including American Express (NYSE: AXP) and MasterCard.
Visa enjoys a dominant share of global credit card processing volume. Of the roughly $6 trillion in total transactions processed by the six largest payment processing firms in 2006, Visa held a 55% share. That compares to just 32% for its main rival, MasterCard. And in terms of the total number of transactions, Visa held a 60% share in 2006 against MasterCard's 31%. As a result of this dominance, banks want to license the Visa brand and consumers want to hold Visa cards to ensure widespread acceptance.
Going forward, Visa should continue to benefit from two main catalysts: the overall increase in the use of electronic payments and strong growth in emerging markets. As for the first point, consumers all over the world are increasingly switching from cash and check payments to more convenient credit card and debit card transactions. Electronic payments are simply faster, more secure, and create less paperwork.
And while electronic payments are still growing nicely in the developed world, growth in emerging markets is even more impressive. Consider that due to rapid economic growth in recent years a growing number of consumers in markets like China and India have enough income to take out their first credit cards. In many such countries, consumers are using electronic payments and are foregoing checks entirely. As consumer spending in these rapidly growing economies picks up steam, so will the volume of credit card transactions.
For example, the dollar volume of Visa transactions in the U.S. grew at a +12% annualized pace from 2000 to 2006. However, in Asia and Latin America, transaction volumes grew at +18% and +21%, respectively, over the same time period. According to Visa's registration statement with the SEC, the company expects transaction growth in emerging markets to accelerate and to continue to exceed growth in the developed world through 2012. Visa has been adding new merchants and banks to its network in key emerging markets such as China and India; it is particularly well placed to grow in these markets in the coming years.
Visa's main competitor, MasterCard, has been one of the most successful IPOs of the past few years. And while the stock saw a nice first-day pop, that gain wasn't fleeting — the stock has soared +380% since the opening bell on its first day of trading.
And Visa is the dominant player in the global payment processing business, so it will benefit even more from the same positive trends as MA.
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A Safe 6.1% Yield with One of the Nation's Largest REITs
by Nathan Slaughter, Editor —
Half-Priced Stocks |
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Weingarten Realty (NYSE: WRI, $34.32) is one of the nation's largest real estate investment trusts (REITs). The company owns 335 commercial shopping centers around the country, as well as 80 industrial properties — a portfolio comprising more than 72 million square feet of space under management.
Fears of a slowdown in consumer spending (and thus falling demand for retail space) have taken a toll on the stock lately, erasing more than one-fourth of Weingarten's market cap. However, I think any near-term threats have been overstated.
Unlike some rivals, Weingarten has a diversified base of 5,700 tenants and doesn't depend too heavily on the business of any single customer. Its largest customer accounts for less than 3% of the firm's revenues, and the top ten represent less than 15%. And while the company does have a modest concentration of properties in the central part of the country, recent acquisitions along the east and west coasts should help provide some geographic diversity and protect against a real estate downturn in any one region.
Furthermore, many of the company's shopping centers are anchored by Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or other leading grocery chains, which are better prepared to weather an economic slump than discretionary retailers. In six decades of operation, occupancy has never once dipped below the 90% mark — and it currently stands at a lofty +94.4%.
Nor do recent fourth-quarter results point to a slowdown. In fact, Weingarten has signed more than 1,200 new leases or renewals over the past year, at an average rental increase of +14%. Meanwhile, funds from operations (FFO), a widely used cash flow measure within the industry, rose +8% to reach $3.06 per share.
As a REIT, Weingarten returns the lion's share of cash to shareholders — increasing its distributions for 23 consecutive years. After a recent distribution hike to $0.525 per share, investors can now expect to receive $2.10 per share over the next year for a yield of 6.1%. And with dozens of new properties under development and a steady stream of recurring rental income from its existing portfolio, there is plenty more where that came from.
Action to Take —> Weingarten Realty is in the fortunate position of collecting a steady stream of income. And thanks to its tax-advantaged structure, it is also able to pass along outsized dividends to its owners.
Now that WRI is trading well off its highs, investors can get much more bang for their buck. With a stable outlook, reliable dividend track record and attractive upside potential, I think this company would make a sound pick for income-oriented value investors. | |
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Additional Investing Ideas
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Featured Topic — Fly to Quality with U.S. Treasury Funds |
When gut-wrenching volatility hits the market and the economic outlook is negative, nervous investors look for safe, dependable investments. And you would be hard-pressed to find any safer payouts than those offered by U.S. Treasuries. Treasury bonds are considered credit risk-free, in that interest and principal payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
But this safety doesn't come at the expense of returns, particularly when the markets are in a rut. Treasuries trounced the S&P 500 in 2007 for the first time in five years. Many exchange-traded Treasury funds more than doubled the S&P 500's total returns of +5.5%.
Picking a Winner
When a bond is issued, it pays a fixed rate of interest, called a "coupon rate." For example, let's say you buy a 10-year Treasury worth $1,000 that carries a 4% coupon rate. If you hold it until it matures, you can expect to receive $40 a year in interest and get back your $1,000 in 2018.
If you sell the bond before it matures, however, the value of the bond will typically reflect changing interest rates. If interest rates on 10-year Treasuries were to rise next year to 5%, the bond you bought for $1,000 might sell for just $800, since an investor can earn more interest by buying a new bond at a higher coupon rate. At $800, the $40 in annual interest gives the bond a yield of 5% ($40/$800 = 5%). But if 10-year Treasury yields fell to 3%, your bond could increase in value to $1,333 to give it a yield equivalent to new Treasuries ($40/$1333 = 3%).
Investors should note a bond's "duration." Duration is a complex calculation expressed in years that measures how volatile a bond can be as interest rates rise and fall. Simply put, if interest rates rise +1%, the price of a bond with a duration of five years is expected to fall by around -5%, but a bond with a longer duration of ten years could lose some -10% of its value.
As you can see, the funds holding bonds with a longer duration (typically more than five years) may suffer greater losses when interest rates rise. But if rates fall, they could enjoy stronger returns since longer-duration bonds should rise faster than comparable bonds with shorter durations.
Like any metric, duration isn't foolproof. For example, inflation fears can hurt long-term bond prices even when interest rates are falling, but have less affect on shorter-term bonds. In addition, factors such as leverage, derivatives, or credit quality can make a bond fund more volatile than its duration would predict. As a rule of thumb though, a long-term bond fund with a duration of ten years will be about twice as volatile to changes in interest rates as a fund with an average duration of five years. As such, shorter-duration funds are more appealing to long-term income investors since their returns tend to be more stable.
Protect Your Portfolio
Inflation is the bogeyman of the bond investor, and it can cut into the value of your bond holdings. A +5% rise in inflation will throw a 4% bond into negative returns and will send its price into a tailspin.
Inflation is a potential threat that arises during low interest rate environment. The problem is that lower interest rates can make the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors, causing it to weaken against other currencies and make goods from other countries costlier.
What's an income investor to do?
Important Note: Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety in today's newsletter. You can find the remainder of this article on our web site. Please visit this linkto continue reading this article. |
Good investing in the coming weeks!
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