StreetAuthority Investor Update -- Monday, March 24, 2008


Monday, March 24, 2008 Volume 8, Issue #12
Published weekly, this free newsletter provides a closer look at the market's most promising stocks, funds, and ETFs. It also includes in-depth commentary from today's leading investment analysts. 

Table of Contents

1.  Market Wrap — A Turbulent Holiday Week
2.  Falling Dollar
3.  Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
4.  Recent Winners
5.  Additional Investing Ideas — New Zealand, POT, Treasury Funds
6.  Industry Movers
7.  Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
8.  Earnings Calendar
9.  Financial Education — Adjustable-Rate Mortgage


Today's Top Stock Picks

The U.S. Dollar is Plummeting — Here's How to Profit... and Lock in Dividend Yields of up to 24.9%
What's bad news for the U.S. traveler can be great news for the U.S. investor. And the best way for you to make money off the tumbling dollar? Buying select foreign securities.
Read More. . .

It Pays to Seek Shelter in this Pharmaceutical Firm
Abbott's (ABT) product lines address every stage of the healthcare process, ranging from prevention to treatment. This balance means the firm is nearly recession-proof. 
Read More. . .

 

Bull? Bear? It doesn't matter.

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Get a FREE report revealing their #1 picks for new money.

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Market Wrap:  A Turbulent Holiday Week

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Although there were only four trading days in the past holiday-shortened week, there were enough market gyrations to last a month.

On March 11th, the Dow Jones Industrials shot up 416 points on reassuring news that the Fed was pumping $200 billion in loans to liquidity-stricken financial institutions. Unfortunately, those gains unraveled within a few short days after worries intensified that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was in dire need of a bailout.

And those fears came to surface this past Monday when word got out that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) had engineered a deal to acquire the beleaguered company (which has borne the brunt of the mortgage-backed security meltdown) for the fire-sale price of $2 per share — a remarkable collapse for a stock trading above $150 at this point last year.

However, Bear Stearns' troubles were brushed aside on Tuesday, thanks in part to better-than-expected news on the earnings front — from Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) no less. But a sharp interest rate cut of 3/4 of a percentage point was what really jump-started the market.

The Fed has now slashed rates six times in the past six months, aggressively lowering the benchmark fed funds rate to just 2.25%, less than half of where it stood last summer. And traders showed their appreciation, sending the Dow up 420 points (+3.5%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both shot up more than +4% — the biggest one-day surge in more than five years for all three of the major averages.

Unfortunately, in action very reminiscent of the prior week, the Dow surrendered nearly 300 points of that gain the very next day, before bargain hunters came rushing back in on Thursday. For the week, all the averages finished sharply higher.

Index Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 12,361 +3.4% -6.8%
S&P 500 1,330 +3.2% -9.4%
S&P MidCap 770 +1.2% -10.3%
S&P SmallCap 362 +2.6% -8.3%
Nasdaq 2,258 +2.1% -14.9%

As the age-old battle between fear and greed wages on, there is a growing sense that the Fed's intervention, along with the economic stimulus checks set to arrive at the doorsteps of 130 million households over the next few months, might be just enough to give the economy a soft landing.

However, while plunging interest rates can resuscitate the economy, they can also weaken the dollar, which has already slipped to new lows against foreign currencies across the board. And below, High-Yield International editor Nick Lanyi lays out a strategy for investors to take advantage of the situation and rake in yields approaching 25%.

After that, Half-Priced Stocks editor Nathan Slaughter gives an upbeat diagnosis for Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT, $55.66). With a well-rounded (and recession-resistant) product line, the company has had the financial strength to boost dividends every year for the past three decades, and thanks to a recent pullback, investors can now pick up the shares on sale.

Good investing!


— Paul Tracy
Chief Investment Strategist

 
 
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The U.S. Dollar is Plummeting — Here's How to Profit... and Lock in Dividend Yields of up to 24.9%
by Nick Lanyi, Editor — High-Yield International (Learn More)

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If you've traveled abroad recently, then you probably understand the impact of a weaker dollar when it comes to purchasing power.

In early 2002, it took about $0.83 to buy one euro — now it will cost you about $1.55.  In other words, the same 200 euro-per-night Paris hotel room that cost $166 several years ago will now set you back about $310.

Fortunately, what's bad news for the U.S. traveler can be great news for the U.S. investor.  And the best way for you to make money off the tumbling dollar?

Buying foreign securities.

Suppose you invested 10,000 euros ($8,300) in a European stock in 2002.  Even if its share price went nowhere, thanks to a falling dollar you could sell your shares, and those same 10,000 euros would now be worth $15,500.  That's an +87% gain from the currency fluctuation alone — with no share price appreciation.  Of course, most foreign stocks have been surging lately, which would make the gains even more dramatic.

Likewise, dividends paid in foreign currencies are worth more when converted into U.S. dollars.

Suppose you invested in a European stock that paid an annual dividend of 5 euros per share.  This dividend would have been worth only $4.15 annually in 2002.  But thanks to the falling dollar, the same 5 euro dividend is now worth $7.75 — also an increase of +87%.  How many U.S. stocks have you run across that have raised their dividends +87% since 2002?

Currency Fluctuations Lead to Big Gains for U.S. Investors

Whether you're investing in Zanzibar or on the NYSE, you're making a currency bet.

Get the currency right and you've already won more than half the battle.  If you can get into a country when its currency is 200 units to the dollar and get out when it's 100 to the dollar, you've already doubled your money.  And that's on top of any capital gain on the stock or interest on the bond.

I hate to discourage all the stock pickers out there, but the simple fact is that it's much more important to be in the right countries than the right stocks.  An appreciating currency pushes the dollar value of your investment ever upward, even if its price in local currency doesn't move a bit.

Take Australia, for example.  You could have bought any Australian stock five years ago, and with the currency doubling against the dollar, you would have had an extra 100% in your pocket — on top of whatever the stock appreciates.  The +160% return of Australia's All Ordinaries Index became a +301% gain for U.S. investors.

Almost the exact same thing happened in New Zealand.  Over the past five years, stocks have soared +92% there.  But American investors gained +176% because of the currency effect.

In Germany, stocks rose +165% in euros, but in dollar terms they were up +273%.

It goes on and on around the world.  In Great Britain, stocks rose +94% for British investors, but +145% for their U.S. counterparts.

In Brazil, the currency effect was like rocket fuel.  Local investors saw their shares soar +518% . . . but in dollar terms Brazilian stocks gained an eye-popping +1,203%!

Profit from Today's Most Attractive Currencies . . . and Lock in Dividend Yields of up to 24.9% 

Over the next several years, foreign currencies should continue to skyrocket versus the U.S. dollar.  After all, U.S. economic growth is slowing, foreigners are pulling their money out of U.S. treasuries, and money is flowing into other countries like Brazil, Norway, Poland, Australia and New Zealand in an effort to capture strong returns and relatively high interest rates.

With all of these factors in mind, I believe the U.S. dollar will continue to fall versus many other foreign currencies, leading to an ever-increasing stream of capital gains and dividends for U.S. investors.

In fact, millions of investors have already locked in gains of up to +1,203% and healthy average dividend yields of 8.5% simply by investing in foreign stocks . . .

Global Stock Market Performance
5-Year Total Returns
(Mar. 2003 - Mar. 2008)

Country What Local Investors Earned What U.S. Investors Earned Current Dividend Yield
Brazil +518% +1,203% 2.8%
Poland +230% +499% 3.2%
Norway +287% +456% 3.9%
Australia +160% +301% 4.8%
Germany +165% +273% 3.2%
Philippines +180% +268% 4.6%
Thailand +154% +246% 3.7%
Spain +109% +209% 3.7%
Singapore +133% +198% 4.2%
New Zealand +92% +176% 8.5%
France +56% +132% 3.8%
Netherlands +55% +129% 4.2%
Italy +37% +103% 5.3%
United States +48% +48% 2.3%

These recent returns have been nothing short of spectacular, but if you're investing in today's markets, then you need to know where to put your money NOW in order to capture both high yields and strong capital gains.  That's where my premium newsletter — High-Yield International — comes in.  It's the only newsletter of its kind devoted exclusively to finding high-yielding securities in today's best-performing foreign markets.

In recent issues, I've profiled some of the most attractive dividend payers on the planet, including a rock-solid Australian utility with a 21.1% yield, an international shipping company paying 15.7%, an emerging Europe fund with a 21.5% yield, and a Canadian trucking giant with dividends of 24.9%, among many others.   

If you'd like to learn the names of these companies — plus receive a steady stream of foreign stocks, funds and other investing ideas with abnormally high dividend yields each and every month — then I'd like to extend you a personal invitation to try my premium international investing newsletter . . . High-Yield International. Visit this link to learn more

 

This Fund Has Paid an Average Dividend of 24.5% Per Year

If you're looking for both high yields and enormous capital gains, then you need to learn more about our "Income Security of the Month" for March 2008.

This stable, diversified fund has a long track record of paying some of the biggest dividends in Wall Street history. In fact, the fund has paid an average dividend of 24.5% per year over the past five years — nearly 12X greater than the yield delivered by the S&P!

Learn the name of this security!

 
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It Pays to Seek Shelter in this Pharmaceutical Firm

by Nathan Slaughter, Editor — Half-Priced Stocks (Learn More)

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Whenever economic uncertainty roils the markets, investors often turn to the defensive healthcare sector. After all, people get sick and need medical treatment regardless of economic conditions, which makes a company like Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT, $55.66) somewhat resistant to a downturn.

Abbott is a leading pharmaceutical provider, riding the success of blockbuster products like Humira — a drug used to treat autoimmune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's Disease. The firm is also a major supplier of diet shakes and other nutritional products, as well as diagnostic equipment for blood banks, hospital labs and other testing and screening facilities. Finally, the company also manufactures stents and other instruments to promote vascular health.

Combined, Abbott took in more than $25 billion in revenues from over 130 different countries last year and generated operating cash flows in excess of $5 billion. And at the moment, each of the firm's business segments is carrying its own weight.

Pharmaceutical revenues (which account for over half of the total) were up nearly +19% last quarter, thanks in large part to surging sales of Humira (+54%) and HIV drug Kaletra (+25%). Meanwhile, the release of Abbott's new Xience drug-eluting stent pushed international sales in the vascular division up +34%. Finally, diagnostic equipment and nutritional products (which include popular children's brands like Pedialyte and Similac) both registered sharp double-digit gains as well.

Looking ahead, all but one of Abbott's drugs will enjoy patent protection throughout 2008, and there are plenty of potential growth drivers on the horizon. For example, Humira has just been approved to treat psoriasis (which afflicts 125 million people globally), and sales of that one drug could reach $4 billion this year. And with a huge research and development (R&D) budget of $2.3 billion annually, the company has a number of other promising drugs in the late stages of clinical trials.

Overall, Abbott's well-rounded product line addresses every stage of the healthcare process, with products ranging from prevention to diagnosis to treatment. And that balance has helped push earnings steadily higher over the years, from $1.71 per share in 2001 to an expected $3.20 per share in 2008 (+87%). It's also worth noting that the firm hasn't missed a dividend payment for 336 consecutive quarters dating back to 1924 — and those distributions have been raised every year for the past three decades.

And the stock has held up relatively well in the face of a withering market sell-off. With steadily rising dividend payouts and a near recession-proof revenue stream, ABT is a solid choice for defensive income-oriented value investors.

 
 
Recent Winners:  Clean Harbors (CLH Converts Trash into Cash
by Nathan Slaughter, StreetAuthority.com Staff Writer

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As editor of StreetAuthority's premium Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, my ongoing mission is to uncover some of the market's most attractive bargains — stocks trading at steep discounts to their fair value.

More often than not, those companies get pushed down to bargain basement prices because they have a few obstacles in their immediate path — rising expenses, merchandising miscues, accounting irregularities, or anything else that causes the myopic mob to sell first and ask questions later. In time, many firms are able to overcome those roadblocks and get back on track — and more often than not, the shares follow suit.

However, every now and then it's possible to run across an undervalued company that is breezing along just fine without any complications at all. In these rare cases, the company has become undervalued not because its shares are falling, but because its fair value (which is a function of future cash flows) is rising.

On the surface, these stocks might not appear cheap by traditional valuation metrics, but overlooking them can be a big mistake. Video game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME), for example, has changed hands at an average P/E of 31 over the past five years — pricey in the eyes of many. However, the company's underlying fair value has exploded over this same time frame, and the stock has been one of the market's best performers — delivering a sizzling gain of more than +700%.

It was a search for precisely that type of company that turned up Clean Harbors (Nasdaq: CLHB, $66.09) this past January. The company is one of the nation's leading providers of hazardous waste removal. As you might expect, there are only a handful of places where hazardous wastes can be properly incinerated, 11 locations throughout all of North America — and Clean Harbors owns more than half of them.

As I noted at the time, recent industry consolidation has left the entire industry in the hands of only five major players, and Clean Harbors just expanded its fleet and posted a sizeable +110% spike in annual free cash flow. Based on my assessment of the firm's growth potential, I calculated a conservative fair value of $60 per share — well above the $51 where they were trading.

And thanks in part to another blowout quarterly earnings report last month, the shares have since zoomed past that mark and climbed to $66 — delivering a gain of almost +30% in less than three months.

In this month's newsletter, I zero in on another growing company that, similar to Clean Harbors, is free of any near-term roadblocks. In fact, this global money management firm has seen its assets under management (AUM) swell by more than $80 billion over the past year, putting $3.4 billion in advisory fees in its coffers. And as a master limited partnership, most of the firm's profits are funneled straight through to shareholders —  giving the stock a rich yield of 7.0%. Yet, despite nearly tripling in value over the past five years, the shares still have the potential to rise +27% before hitting their fair value.

To read my complete profile of this exciting firm — available only to subscribers — I invite you to join us at Half-Priced Stocks. To learn more, please visit this link.

 
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Additional Investing Ideas

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Finding The World's Highest Yields in a South Pacific Paradise
Few are aware that New Zealand boasts the highest dividend yields available — about 8.5% on average.
Booming Agricultural Markets Have Propelled this Stock +208% in a Year
Potash is a key natural fertilizer. As a result, this firm has been able to steadily increase the price it charges for the product — leading to windfall profits for investors.
Capture Yields as High as 10.5% with Safe Treasury Funds
You would be hard-pressed to find safer payouts than those offered by U.S. Treasuries. And bond funds provide the best way to gain exposure to these securities.
 
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Industry Winners/Losers

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Top Five Industry Movers Over The Past Month 

Winners Losers

Industry


% Change
Film & TV Production +8.9%
REITs +6.4%
Electric Equipment +5.7%
Insurance (Title) +5.7%
Discount Stores +5.3%

Industry


% Change
Managed Care -21.8%
Air Transport -19.1%
Agrochemical -17.2%
Wireline Equipment -16.9%
Coal -16.1%
 

Top Five Industry Movers For The Calendar Year 

Winners Losers

Industry


% Change
Insurance (Title) +21.0%
Home Building +17.8%
Discount Stores +9.3%
Film & TV Production +8.5%
Toys/Hobbies +8.3%

Industry


% Change
Managed Care -29.8%
Business/Online Services -29.3%
Wireline Equipment -28.9%
Wireless Service -24.4%
Assisted Living -23.1%
 
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Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

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The table below includes a list of some of the most important analyst upgrades and downgrades from the previous week (abbreviated where necessary)...

Upgrades
Company (Symbol) Analyst From To
AstraZeneca (AZN) HSBC Neutral Overweight
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) SMH Capital Sell Buy
CSX Corp. (CSX) UBS Neutral Buy
Countrywide (CFC) Wachovia Underperform Market Perform
Fannie Mae (FNM) Keefe Market Perform Outperform
Freddie Mac (FRE) Keefe Market Perform Outperform
Morgan Stanley (MS) Ziegel Sell Market Perform
PepsiAmericas (PAS) HSBC Underweight Neutral
Reliance Steel (RS) Longbow Neutral Buy
Vimpel Comm. (VIP) Citigroup Sell Hold

 

Downgrades
Company (Symbol) Analyst From To
Amgen (AMGN) Wachovia Outperform Market Perform
Goldman Sachs (GS) UBS Buy Neutral
Home Depot (HD) Keegan Market Perform Underperform
International Paper (IP) DA Davidson Buy Neutral
Kraft Foods (KFT) JP Morgan Overweight Neutral
Nike (NKE) Caris & Company Buy Above Average
Nucor (NUE) Longbow Buy Neutral
US Airways (LCC) UBS Buy Neutral
 
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Earnings Calendar

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There are no significant earnings reports in the coming week.

 
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Financial Education

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We devote this section of the newsletter to an educational analysis of a wide variety of financial terms and investing strategies. Knowledge and understanding of these important ideas and principles could help you earn above-average profits from your investments.
 
Adjustable-Rate Mortgage
 

by Tina Orem, StreetAuthority.com Staff Writer

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What It Is:
An adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is a type of loan in which the interest rate charged to the borrower increases or decreases at pre-determined intervals to reflect changes in an interest rate index. These loans are also called variable-rate mortgages or floating-rate mortgages.

How It Works/Example:
The idea behind ARMs is very simple, but there are many covenants that can be included in the contracts to complicate things. Two common types of ARMs are the interest-only ARM and the hybrid ARM. Interest-only ARMs offer a set period during which the borrower only pays the interest on the loan. This temporarily reduces the borrower's payment, but it leaves the principal outstanding. Hybrid ARMs offer a fixed interest rate for a period of time and then revert to a variable rate for the remainder of the loan's life. A 3/1 ARM, for example, is a mortgage that carries a fixed rate for the first three years and then adjusts every year thereafter.

In many cases, ARMs have caps — limits on how high and sometimes how low the interest rate can go and how much it can move in any one period. For some ARMs, the interest rate will only adjust up — that is, borrowers will get no benefit if interest rates fall.

Why It Matters:
As you can see, ARMs can have complex implications. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, borrowers may not know how much their loan payments will be one, three, five, or ten years in the future. As such, ARMs have been criticized for being a bad option for homebuyers and have been blamed for increasing foreclosures. On the other hand, the normally low introductory rates associated with ARMs can help cut costs for borrowers in the short term — allowing them to purchase a home today in anticipation of being able to handle potentially higher payments down the road.

 


We sincerely hope that you find the above information useful in the course of your financial research. Good investing in the coming week!




Paul Tracy
Chief Investment Strategist
StreetAuthority.com



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