StreetAuthority Investor Update -- Monday, March 10, 2008


Monday, March 10, 2008 Volume 8, Issue #10
Published weekly, this free newsletter provides a closer look at the market's most promising stocks, funds, and ETFs. It also includes in-depth commentary from today's leading investment analysts. 

Table of Contents

1.  Market Wrap — Market Retreat Deepens
2.  Market Vectors Coal (KOL)
3.  Singapore
4.  Recent Winners
5.  Additional Investing Ideas — Liquefied Natural Gas, WIA, DRI
6.  Industry Winners/Losers
7.  Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
8.  Earnings Calendar
9.  Financial Education — Accounting Earnings


Today's Top Stock Picks

You're in Luck: There is Now an ETF Geared Toward One of the Hottest Sectors Around
Van Eck has just launched an ETF geared exclusive toward coal, and increasing world-wide demand would have lead to annualized returns of +44% over the past three years.
Read More. . .

Forget China! Investors Look to Singapore for Double-Digit Yields
China and India are terrible places to search for high yields. But income investors can benefit by investing in countries directly benefiting from the boom. Read More. . .

 
 
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Market Wrap:  Market Retreat Deepens

Another week, another round of bleak economic data, and another punishing sell-off for the major averages.

One month ago, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the service sector of the economy contracted for the first time in five years in January; and contracted may be too mild of a description, plunged would be more accurate. The news quickly set off alarm bells on Wall Street — not surprising, considering service (non-manufacturing) companies account for about 85% of the U.S. economy.

With that preface, Wednesday's follow-up ISM report for the month of February took on even greater meaning. And for the second straight month, the index came in short of the breakeven 50 mark, as companies involved in transportation, education and other service-oriented industries continue to report a slowdown in business activity.

The "good" news is that the actual headline figure came in a shade ahead of expectations and showed improvement over last month.

Unfortunately, there was no such ambiguity when it came to the week's second marquee economic report — Friday's non-farm payrolls. Traders had been expecting to see net job creation of 25,000 positions over the past month, and were instead confronted with a loss of more than 60,000. Worse still, after running through the numbers again, January's losses were revised to 22,000 (from an initial tally of 17,000) and December's growth of 82,000 jobs was shaved in half to just 41,000.

While those two reports captured most of the attention, there were certainly other market-moving events — like crude oil prices spiking to record highs above $105 per barrel. In the end, a mild rally early in the week fizzled out and the major averages all finished with steep losses of around -2.5% or more.

Index Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 11,894 -3.0% -10.3%
S&P 500 1,293 -2.8% -11.9%
S&P MidCap 760 -3.6% -11.4%
S&P SmallCap 352 -3.2% -10.9%
Nasdaq 2,213 -2.6% -16.6%

With this past week's selloff, the benchmark S&P 500 has now sunk about -18% below its October peak — not far from the -20% threshold that technically defines a bear market. Fortunately, even in the most challenging of markets, there are always opportunities to profit.

For example, the new Market Vectors Coal (NYSE: KOL, $39.76) fund tracks an index that soared +103% last year. And below, ETF Authority editor Nathan Slaughter explains why growing power consumption in China could continue fueling massive profits for coal companies — and outsized gains for KOL shareholders.

After that, Nick Lanyi, editor of our new High-Yield International newsletter, takes readers on a tour of Singapore. Though it is often in the shadow of highly-publicized markets like China and India, Singapore has a unique story of its own — and investors that got the message have already enjoyed +200% returns since 2003.

Good Investing!



— Paul Tracy
Chief Investment Strategist

 

This Fund Has Paid an Average Dividend of 24.5% Per Year

If you're looking for both high yields and enormous capital gains, then you need to learn more about our "Income Security of the Month" for March 2008.

This stable, diversified fund has a long track record of paying some of the biggest dividends in Wall Street history. In fact, the fund has paid an average dividend of 24.5% per year over the past five years — nearly 12X greater than the yield delivered by the S&P!

Learn the name of this security!

 
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You're in  Luck: There is Now an ETF Geared Toward One of the Hottest Sectors Around
by Nathan Slaughter, Editor — The ETF Authority (Learn More)

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Van Eck, the company that brought us narrow-based ETFs targeting various sub-sectors like gold mining and environmental services, has just launched a new fund dedicated exclusively to coal. While Market Vectors Coal (NYSE: KOL, $39.76) is hardly suitable as a core holding, aggressive investors may still want to reserve a spot for it.

First, the basics. The fund will track the Stowe Coal Index, a modified, market-cap weighted benchmark of 60 companies engaged in various coal activities, ranging from mining and production to power generation and transportation. Like many sector funds, this one is rather top-heavy, as the top 25 names account for nearly 90% of the fund's assets.

According to Van Eck's website, expenses will be capped at 0.65% through April 2008, but could potentially increase thereafter. However, the ride has been well worth the price of admission thus far. According to backtested data, shareholders would have seen annualized returns of around +44% over the past three years ended December 2007 — capped off by a sizzling gain of +103% in 2007.

Domestic U.S. coal giants like Peabody (NYSE: BTU) occupy about 40% of the portfolio, while most of the remainder is involved in Pacific Rim nations such as China and Australia. This diversification should continue paying off down the line. China is a growth driver for many different industries — and coal is no exception.

Thanks to torrid economic expansion, China has an almost insatiable demand for electricity. To meet that demand, new power plants with the capacity to serve a city the size of Denver are popping up at the rate of one per week. With one of the highest consumption rates in the world, the country also has a ravenous appetite for steel. And both power plants and steel mills are typically dependent on one critical raw material — coal.

According to the World Coal Institute, coal is used to produce roughly 40% of the world's electricity and 70% of its steel. And given the rapid industrialization taking place in China, the country now uses more coal than Japan, the U.S. and the European Union combined. All of this has translated into tremendous profits for companies like Yanzhou Coal (NYSE: YZC), one of the fund's largest holdings — which delivered a whopping gain of +144% last year.

On the downside, coal has come under fire from environmental groups and others for its damaging greenhouse gas emissions, and a transition to greener energy has begun.

But, that transition could take decades to play out, particularly in emerging markets like China where environmental controls are still lax. In the meantime, coal-fired plants account for roughly 75% of China's power production, and that figure could climb over the next few years. Furthermore, many companies are adopting cleaner-burning coal technologies to stay in compliance with stricter regulations.

As you can see from an average P/E of 47, coal stocks are richly valued at the moment. That will only add to the volatility that typically comes with investing in such a narrow slice of the market — particularly one that is heavily influenced by unpredictable commodity prices.

However, global energy consumption is going nowhere but up in the years ahead. And with oil prices surging to record highs, worldwide demand for coal should remain strong — particularly in emerging markets.

Against that backdrop, aggressive investors might want to keep KOL in mind.

 
Warren Buffett Just Purchased 21 Million Shares of this Stock!

A few short weeks ago, legendary investor Warren Buffett loaded up on this promising retailer, purchasing a stake valued at nearly $500 million. This little-known retail stock has already gained +2,469%, but we expect its market share to grow tenfold in the coming years, leading to market-crushing gains for early investors like Buffett. And best of all, it's not too late for YOU to get in on the action.

You're just seconds away from learning the name and ticker symbol of this stock, PLUS several other Buffett favorites. You'll find them all in our FREE research report — "Warren Buffett's Top Picks."

Read this Buffett report now!

 
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Forget China! Investors Look to Singapore for Double-Digit Yields
by Nick Lanyi, Editor — High-Yield International (Learn More)

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If you've picked up a newspaper or followed the business headlines over the past few years, then you're no doubt familiar with the biggest theme in global economics these days: the tremendous boom in China and India.

Globalization, increasing free trade and a hunger for low-cost labor have led to rapid economic growth in China and India throughout the past decade.  Both countries have grown at double-digit rates — China's gross domestic product (GDP) rose +11.4% in 2007 and is expected to jump another +10.0% in 2008.  Meanwhile, India's economy expanded +8.9% last year and should continue to churn ahead at an +8.4% pace this year.

It's easy for investors to get excited about these countries because the potential is real, and their phenomenal growth should continue for years, if not decades.

But there's a problem.

If you're an income investor, then China and India are terrible places to search for high yields.  For the most part, companies in these two emerging markets pay little or no dividends; they're too busy reinvesting cash into their businesses or acquiring competitors as they strive to keep up with the surging economy.

So, how can income investors take advantage of economic growth in these markets, yet still lock in solid dividend yields?  The answer is simple — invest in other Asian countries that are directly benefiting from the economic boom in China and India.

Asian Countries Deliver Big Gains

Not surprisingly, stocks in surrounding nations like South Korea, Japan and Singapore have delivered strong returns in recent years.  The table below tells the tale, and the same phenomenal growth story applies throughout the rest of Asia.

Country/Exchange 5-Yr. Annualized Return
Shanghai +31.7%
Hong Kong +27.3%
Singapore +24.6%
South Korea +23.9%
Japan +13.6%
U.S. (S&P 500) +11.9%

*All data as of December 2007

As you can see, by and large, all of Asia is enjoying an economic boom — thanks in no small part to what's happening in China and India.  As these two economies have grown, trade with their neighbors has picked up, leading to increased demand for natural resources and other important exports from surrounding countries like Singapore and South Korea.  This has fueled strong economic growth throughout the entire region.

And while the pickings are slim when it comes to high-yield stocks in China and India, many surrounding countries are loaded with high-quality dividend payers.  Best of all, thanks to solid economic growth in the region, these dividend-rich firms are generating strong cash flows — cash they're returning to shareholders in the form of steadily-growing dividend payments.

Enter:  Singapore

Although a number of Asian nations look promising in today's environment, Singapore remains one of my absolute favorite high-yield hunting grounds.

A tiny city-state made up of 63 islands but with a geographic size of just 272 square miles, Singapore masquerades as a geographic midget, but in reality it's an economic giant.  The country has a population of less than 5 million and is less than half the size of Los Angeles — Singapore is really a city-state.  But the country is one of the most business-friendly and efficiently run nations in the world.  It's also a a developed market with a high standard of living.  On a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) basis, Singapore ranks above such countries as Spain, Portugal, and Greece and just behind Italy, Australia, and Canada. 

The government recognized early on that it can't compete with China on labor costs for manufacturing.  Nor can the country compete with India on price when it comes to certain services.  Singapore instead re-focused its economy on high value-added industries such as financial services and technology.  As a result, the country has become a key banking and financial services center within Asia, and it remains one of the highest-volume currency-trading centers in the world.

And the nation is taking steps to make sure it maintains its competitive edge. Singapore has eased labor laws, making it easier for needed workers to emigrate there. Singapore has also enacted legislation to reduce its corporate tax rate to 18% starting with the 2008 tax year; soon its taxes will be among the lowest in the world.

Meanwhile, Singapore's enviable position at the intersection of various shipping routes has made its port one of the world's busiest for 300 years.  As a result, Singapore's so-called "entrepot" industry — duty-free importing and exporting out of the same port facilities — provides the nation with a significant source of income.  And thanks to Singapore's proximity to fast-growing Asian markets like China, the nation is one of the biggest beneficiaries of booming Asian trade.

Singapore's real estate industry is also in the midst of an incredible expansion. With limited space, developers have constructed thousands of new homes, but values have still shot through the roof, as demand has outstripped supply.  The same scenario has also unfolded in the market for office and industrial space.

Looking at the overall picture, Singapore's economy is soaring.  The nation's gross domestic product has increased +6-8% annually over the past four years, with +6.5% growth expected in 2008 — faster than almost every other developed economy in the world.  If it manages that rate, then the country's stock market should continue to deliver robust returns.

Of course, if you've been following Singaporean stocks, then outsized gains are certainly nothing new.  The tiny city-state has been one of the world's best-performing markets over the past five years . . .

The MSCI Singapore Index has skyrocketed over +200% since 2003, delivering annualized gains of +27.6% and trouncing the S&P 500 by a 3-to-1 margin.  I expect that outperformance to continue in the coming years thanks to the implementation of business-friendly reforms, as well as strong demand for exports to China.

Capturing Above-Average Yields in Singapore

There are many compelling reasons to invest in Singapore.  Aside from strong economic growth, the nation is also delivering abnormally high dividend yields.  The average Singaporean stock is now yielding about 3.5% — nearly 2X the level seen in the U.S.  And remember, that's just the average — many individual stocks in Singapore are now dishing out yields of 6%, 8% . . . even 10% or more.

In the most recent issue of my premium newsletter — High-Yield International — I went in search of high yields in Singapore, as well as several other attractive nations in Southeast Asia.  In the process, I profiled some of my favorite high-yield picks in the region, including a fast-growing company that is scooping up some of Singapore's most valuable real estate.  Thanks to strong economic growth, real estate prices and rental rates are booming, helping this firm deliver +49% revenue growth and an impressive 9.0% dividend yield

If you'd like to learn the name of this high-yielding Singaporean real estate play — plus receive a steady stream of foreign stocks, funds and other investing ideas with abnormally high dividend yields each and every month — then I'd like to extend you a personal invitation to try my premium international investing newsletter — High-Yield International Visit this link to learn more.

 
Recent Winners:  Gold Rally Pays off Big for Market Advisor Readers
by Nathan Slaughter, StreetAuthority.com Staff Writer

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While a series of sobering economic reports have battered the major market averages over the past few months, not all investors are complaining. In fact, those that have put their money in gold have actually enjoyed intoxicating gains.

Spurred by a volatile mix of factors including soaring crude oil prices and rising inflation, a tumbling dollar, and even supply disruptions in South Africa, prices for the shiny yellow metal have soared to record highs — flirting with the lofty $1,000 per ounce level this past week.

In times of geopolitical instability or economic uncertainty, investors often turn to gold as a classic hedge, particularly when inflation is on the rise. With all this in mind, Paul Tracy, editor of our StreetAuthority Market Advisor newsletter, went panning for gold stocks in his November 2005 newsletter.

At the time, gold prices were languishing below $450 per ounce. But with inflation building, the dollar falling, and GDP growth already showing hints of a slowdown, Paul felt the time was right to begin exploring gold — and prices have more than doubled since.

Of course, some companies were far better positioned than others to take advantage, and Paul recommended Compania De Minas Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN, $75.77). The Peru-based company was sitting on some of the richest mines on the planet, and its extraction costs were well below industry average — a key competitive advantage in a commodity industry with no pricing power.

The company was also teaming up with larger companies like BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) on new joint development ventures. Yet, despite robust earnings growth forecasts of +40%, the shares were trading at one of the most attractive valuations in the industry. Paul singled out the stock and gave it a "Buy" rating at an initial price of $24.64.

And since then, the shares have turned in a glittering performance, jumping all the way to $75 — a gain of +204%.

In this month's Market Advisor newsletter, Paul has unearthed another promising miner that is cashing in on the global commodities boom. The company is a leading producer of industrial metals like copper and zinc — whose prices have soared thanks to surging demand from China and other emerging markets. The firm is aggressively planning to step up its production over the next few years, but like BVN, its shares are still trading at a sharp discount.

To learn more about this stock, which Paul believes could double from $40 to more than $80 per share, please follow this link.

 
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Additional Investing Ideas

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How to Invest in the Soon-to-be Booming Liquefied Natural Gas Industry
U.S. production of natural gas is at a standstill. With consumption expected to more than quadruple in the next few decades, this method of transportation will become increasingly profitable.
The Unique Fund that can Protect Your Portfolio from Rising Inflation
Whether the market tailwinds are credit write-downs, inflation fears, a slumping dollar, or interest rate surprises, this fund has it covered.
With the Potential to Rise +37%, Darden (DRI) Should See Renewed Buying Interest
As the owner of some of the world's most popular restaurants, Darden has plenty of room for growth — and share price gains.
 
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Industry Winners/Losers

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Top Five Industry Movers Over The Past Month 

Winners Losers

Industry


% Change
Aluminum +19.3%
Mining +19.1%
Steel/Iron +16.0%
Gold & Silver +15.3%
Oil & Gas Services +14.1%

Industry


% Change
Insurance (Title) -22.0%
Education -20.0%
Wireline Equipment -16.2%
International Bank -11.9%
Savings & Loans -11.9%
 

Top Five Industry Movers For The Calendar Year 

Winners Losers

Industry


% Change
Gold & Silver +21.4%
Broadcast TV +9.6%
Coal +9.5%
Mining +7.1%
Aluminum +6.8%

Industry


% Change
Business/Online Services -30.0%
Wireline Equipment -26.7%
Online Retail -25.4%
Education -24.8%
Wireless Service -22.6%
 
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Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

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The table below includes a list of some of the most important analyst upgrades and downgrades from the previous week (abbreviated where necessary)...

Upgrades
Company (Symbol) Analyst From To
Chunghwa (CHT) Credit Suisse Neutral Outperform
Darden (DRI) Bear Stearns Peer Perform Outperform
Legg Mason (LM) Wachovia Underperform Market Perform
McDermott (MDR) Citigroup Hold Buy
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Oppenheimer Perform Outperform
PepsiAmericas (PAS) Deutsche Hold Buy
Sara Lee (SLE) DA Davidson Underperform Neutral
Vonage (VG) Bear Stearns Underperform Peer Perform

 

Downgrades
Company (Symbol) Analyst From To
Alcoa (AA) Friedman Billings Outperform Market Perform
Best Buy (BBY) Bank of America Buy Neutral
Chico's (CHS) Sterne Agee Buy Hold
ConocoPhillips (COP) Lehman Brothers Overweight Equal-weight
EOG Resources (EOG) Oppenheimer Perform Underperform
Ford Motor (F) Citigroup Hold Sell
Saks (SKS) Bank of America Buy Neutral
Thornburg (TMA) Jefferies Buy Hold
Western Digital (WDC) JP Morgan Neutral Underweight
Whirlpool (WHR) JP Morgan Neutral Underweight
 
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Earnings Calendar

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The table below includes a list of important quarterly earnings releases that are getting set to take place in the coming week:

Date Company (Symbol) EPS Estimate
Mar. 10 Centerplate (CVP)
Jones Soda (JSDA)
Blackstone Group (BX)
 -$0.06   
 -$0.03   
$0.21
Mar. 11 Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
J. Crew (JCG)
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
Kroger (KR)
$0.60
$0.39
-$0.51   
$0.47
 
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Financial Education

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We devote this section of the newsletter to an educational analysis of a wide variety of financial terms and investing strategies. Knowledge and understanding of these important ideas and principles could help you earn above-average profits from your investments.
 
Accounting Earnings
 

by Tina Orem, StreetAuthority.com Staff Writer

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What It Is:
Accounting earnings, or net income, represent the amount of money gained or lost after all costs, depreciation, interest, taxes and expenses have been deducted from a company's total sales.

A simple formula for calculating net income is:
Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold (CGS) - General & Administrative Expenses - Depreciation - Interest Expense + Internet Income - Taxes - Preferred Dividends

How It Works/Example:
Let's assume that Company XYZ delivered the following financial results last year:
 

Revenue $1,000,000
Cost of Goods Sold $500,000
G&A Expenses $300,000
Depreciation $100,000
Interest Expense $5,000
Interest Income $1,000
Taxes $10,000
Preferred Dividends $10,000

Using the formula and the information above, we can calculate Company XYZ's accounting earnings are as follows:

$1,000,000 -$500,000-$300,000-$100,000-$5,000+$1,000-$10,000-$10,000= $76,000

Why it Matters:
Accounting earnings are some of the most closely followed numbers a company publishes. In general, negative or low earnings might suggest a myriad of problems, ranging from inadequacies in customer or expense management to unfavorable accounting methods.

Changes in accounting methods can greatly influence accounting earnings, and in many cases these changes may have little to do with a company's actual operations. Some companies strive to minimize taxes and will therefore intentionally minimize their accounting earnings.

Care should be taken when comparing accounting earnings over time, as many companies and industries are cyclical and/or seasonal. As a result, comparisons are generally most meaningful between the same fiscal quarter in different years. 
 


We sincerely hope that you find the above information useful in the course of your financial research. Good investing in the coming week!




Paul Tracy
Chief Investment Strategist

   

Income Security of the Month

If you're looking for both high yields and enormous capital gains, then you need to learn more about our "Income Security of the Month" for February 2008. This stable, diversified fund has a long track record of paying some of the biggest dividends in Wall Street history. In fact, the fund has paid an average dividend of 22.1% per year over the past five years — nearly 12X greater than the yield delivered by the S&P!

This fund invests exclusively in one of the fastest-growing and most undervalued foreign markets on the planet. Thanks in large part to its international strategy, the fund has posted total returns of +281.7% over the past five years, and it ranks in the top 12% of its category over the past decade.

Undervalued Stock of the Month
Our favorite value stock for December 2007 has pulled back -51% from its highs. As a result, bargain hunters now have a rare opportunity to pick up one of the world's most dominant companies with a "Price Appreciation Potential" of +91%.

Top Ten Stocks for 2008
StreetAuthority.com founder Paul Tracy and our research staff just put the finishing touches on an in-depth 25-page special report entitled "StreetAuthority's Top Ten Stocks for 2008." After hundreds of hours of research, due diligence and healthy intra-company debate, we've managed to narrow the vast investing universe down to just ten stocks that we think are poised to deliver above-average returns not only throughout the 2007 calendar year, but also in the years that follow.

Why You're Not Hearing About 93% of the World's Highest-Yielding Stocks...
Income Investors: Think back to the most generous yield of any stock you've ever had the good fortune to own.  Now triple it. That just hints at the kind of cash flow you can pocket right now from the special stocks, bonds and funds you'll find in the brand-new investment service I want to tell you about today.


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